The No-Rise Surprise
Why Additional Conveyance Area Doesn’t Always Lower Water Surface
There are equations for wave heights and run up as a function of wind speed, reservoir depth, and fetch length. You simply gather some historical wind data that you can assign probabilities to. Assign a wind direction (to be conservative, you can assume the longest fetch length, unless the wind never blows that way), then compute wave heights and run up for different frequencies of wind magnitudes. Which frequency you design to (100-year, 50-year, etc) is up to you and your client.
Here’s a good place to start:
http://140.194.76.129/publications/eng-manuals/em1110-2-1420/c-15.pdf
Here are some other interesting links that might lead to additional information:
http://www.wldelft.nl/cons/area/wds/im/wave-dynamic-structure.pdf
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